Two years after the Nairobi Communiqué committed signatory states to a credible FDLR disarmament timeline, the process has produced negligible results. Fewer than 200 FDLR combatants have been repatriated to Rwanda through the DDRRR process in 2024–2025, against an estimated active force of between 2,000 and 3,500 fighters.
"The Nairobi process gave the FDLR something it has always sought: time and diplomatic legitimacy. It delivered neither disarmament nor accountability."
Three structural failures explain the impasse: First, no coercive mechanism was attached to FDLR disarmament obligations, leaving compliance entirely voluntary. Second, Rwandan preconditions for accepting repatriating combatants — including renunciation of genocide ideology and cooperation with justice mechanisms — have deterred rank-and-file fighters who fear prosecution. Third, MONUSCO's DDRRR capacity has been progressively reduced as the mission draws down.